JULY 9, 2026 — In the years following World War II, Fleet Admiral Chester W. Nimitz wrote on pre-war wargaming, stating, “The enemy of our games was always [Imperial] Japan, and the courses were so thorough that after the start of World War II, nothing that happened in the Pacific was strange or unexpected.” As a former student of the U.S. Naval War College (NWC) during the 1920s, Nimitz would have tested his leadership and decision-making skills during the College’s annual wargames, long before hostilities with Imperial Japan broke out. By the time Imperial Japan launched its infamous attack on Pearl Harbor, the U.S. Navy had already developed its strategy for possible conflict, known as War Plan Orange, through years of wargaming.
The practice of wargaming still endures to this day, and though it might look different than it did during Nimitz’s tenure as a student with the advancement of technology and methods, its value to decision makers and warfighters alike has not waned. As a result, the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) instituted its Red Wargaming Bench (RWB) program to enhance wargame-related support to the nation, Navy, and fleet.
Located within the National Maritime Intelligence Center in Suitland, Maryland, a small team of ONI’s best and brightest, dubbed the Fleet and Wargame Support (FWS) Team, works diligently to further professionalize ONI’s analytic workforce and ensure ONI’s mastery of the adversary to provide decision-making advantage on the “game board” through its own internal wargaming initiative.
“ONI’s new program of internal and interagency wargaming comes under the rubric of the Red Wargaming Bench effort that is enhancing the knowledge, understanding, skills and abilities of ONI analysts,” said Tim Smith, senior intelligence analyst for wargaming at ONI and member of the FWS team.
Under the mentorship of ONI’s Senior Naval Intelligence Manager, and in partnership with the NWC, the numbered fleets, and partner agencies, the ONI RWB effort is honing ONI’s ability to act as a driving force in wargame development and execution. Through resource realignment, ONI’s Intelligence Cycle Management Directorate (N2) initiated the ONI RWB to design and conduct internal analytic wargaming. Coordinating across and throughout the ONI enterprise, the ONI RWB initiative ensures the development of trained and qualified civilian and military subject matter experts to support sponsored wargaming and exercises across the fleet.
Smith along with his fellow FWS teammates, Joshua Turner and Chief Warrant Officer 3 LaQuieta McMillian from ONI N2, are driving this initiative and work within the ONI enterprise to bring the ONI RWB to fruition. The team aims to enhance ONI’s understanding of adversary (Red) and U.S. naval forces (Blue) capabilities, plans, and tactics through a multi-pronged professionalization process focused on designing and implementing internal ONI wargame learning and simulation events, and projects.
Effectively creating a “one-stop shop”, the FWS team consolidates management and professionalization of ONI’s ‘left-of-wargame’ support through the ONI RWB and ensures expert ONI representation of Red at U.S. Navy Title 10 wargaming events.
“The purpose of internal analytic and training wargames is to add both wide-ranging alternative hypotheses and quantitative rigor to ONI analytic production, and to hone the ‘Red’ expertise of the ONI analysts we detail to participate in Navy and other Title 10 wargame events,” said Smith.
To effectively conduct a wargaming event, ‘Blue’ forces must play against a thinking, adaptive opponent that challenges their assumptions concerning a ‘Red’ adversary. In turn, Red-Cell players must possess a deep-rooted understanding of how an adversary thinks, operates, and approaches warfare to pose a credible challenge that will drive learning and improve the decision making of its players. Following this concept, the ONI RWB focuses its efforts on deepening its own Red expertise by exploring alternative adversary capability projections and operational courses of action.
“We will vary Red while holding Blue constant and draw inferences concerning Red capabilities, limitations, and vulnerabilities,” said Smith. “In doing so, we will share our evolving insights through post-wargame finished intelligence products and Red representation at wargames. In this way, we will drive a broader learning spiral for ONI’s intelligence contribution to the Nation and Navy.”
The ONI RWB aims to leverage ONI’s own subject matter experts and analysts to identify knowledge gaps and weaknesses by testing alternative Red courses of action and answering key intelligence questions during a possible scenario. This cyclical process in conjunction with ONI’s unique mission set as the Nation’s premiere maritime intelligence agency will better enable leaders to make critical decisions when it matters most.
“Participating analysts bring their familiarity with existing assessments in order to deepen or challenge their understanding,” said Smith. “It is the duty of Naval Intelligence to wargame alternative enemy capabilities, operations, and tactics, and then present those findings to Navy decision makers in Chief of Naval Operations-directed wargames.”
In a 2024 article titled “Seven Reflections of a Red Commander: What I’ve Learned from Playing the Adversary in Department of Defense Wargames,” Ian Sullivan, the Senior Intelligence Officer (G2) for the U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command, shares his thoughts on developing experienced Red cells and lessons-learned through his years of wargaming experience. “A wargame will not predict the future for Blue, but if Red does its job correctly, it will allow Blue to experience what a potential fight could look like,” writes Sullivan. “We have to get Red right so that Blue gets the opportunity to learn and to get it right on a future battlefield.”
While not predictive, wargaming enables leaders like Nimitz to adapt to challenges quickly, make disciplined decisions when and where it matters, and win future fights before they begin. The ONI Fleet and Wargame Support Team and it’s Red Wargaming Bench initiative aim to support current and future Naval leaders by deepening ONI’s understanding of potential adversaries and utilizing lessons learned to enhance the readiness and lethality of our Navy warfighters.
Established in 1882, the Office of Naval Intelligence is the nation’s premiere source of maritime intelligence, delivering war-winning maritime expertise that promotes our Nation’s prosperity and security, deters aggression, and strengthens the readiness and lethality of our Navy. For more information on the Office of Naval Intelligence, visit www.oni.navy.mil.
Story by Naomi VanDuser
Office of Naval Intelligence